Predictive Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Urbanization Impacts on Wetlands in Monavale Vlei, Harare, Using Cellular Automata–Markov 2012–2022
Monitoring wetland loss
Keywords:
MOLUSCE, urbanization, wetland loss, Land use land coverAbstract
Urbanization is a major driver of wetland ecosystems, especially in the rapidly growing city of Harare, Zimbabwe. Monavale Vlei, situated in the Manyame River sub-catchment, is an important component in maintaining ecological and hydrological balance for Harare. This paper uses the Cellular Automata–Markov (CA-Markov) model to evaluate past wetland change dynamics (2012-2022) and forecast future land use and land cover (LULC) change up to 2032. The results show extreme wetland change and conversion due to urban expansion, with water resources projected to decrease by 63.4%, forest cover by 14.9%, and built-up areas to expand by 11.5%. However, some forest recovery (31.2%) and further urban expansion (26.3%) are also expected. These projections confirm the imbalanced effects of urbanization, with its critical hydrological and ecological processes being disproportionately endangered. The results of this study indicate that urban sprawl not only affects biodiversity and groundwater recharge but also affects agricultural and livelihood processes, making the population more susceptible to waterborne diseases. This study stresses the need for urgent conservation and policy measures to address wetland degradation and ensure sustainable urban development in Harare.
References
Ahmad, F., Goparaju, L., & Qayum, A. (2017). LULC analysis of urban spaces using Markov chain predictive model at Ranchi in India. Spatial Information Research, 25(3), 351-359. DOI 10.1007/s41324-017-0102-x
Amin, A., & Fazal, S. (2012). Land transformation analysis using remote sensing and GIS techniques (a case study). Journal of Geographic Information System, 4(3), 229-236. doi: 10.4236/jgis.2012.43027.
Anand, V., & Oinam, B. (2020). Future land use land cover prediction with special emphasis on urbanization and wetlands. Remote Sensing Letters, 11(3), 225-234.
Chirisa, I., Kawadza, S. T., & Muzenda, A. (2014). Unexplored elasticity of planning and good governance in Harare, Zimbabwe. International Review for Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development, 2(4), 19-29.
Chuvieco, E. (2020). Fundamentals of satellite remote sensing: An environmental approach. CRC press.
Cloke, H. L., Di Baldassarre, G., Landeg, O., Pappenberger, F., & Ramos, M. H. (2017). Hydrological risk: floods. Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less. Poljanšek, K., Marín Ferrer, M., De Groeve, T., Clark, I.,(Eds.), Publications Office of the European Union, 198-238.
Faulkner, S. (2004). Urbanization impacts on the structure and function of forested wetlands. Urban ecosystems, 7, 89-106.
Feresu, S. A., Wang, Y., & Dickinson, S. (2015). Relationship between maternal obesity and prenatal, metabolic syndrome, obstetrical and perinatal complications of pregnancy in Indiana, 2008–2010. BMC pregnancy and childbirth, 15(1), 266.
Foster, S., & Ait-Kadi, M. (2012). Integrated water resources management (IWRM): how does groundwater fit in?. Hydrogeology Journal, 20(3), 415-418.
Gidey, E., Dikinya, O., Sebego, R., Segosebe, E., & Zenebe, A. (2017). Cellular automata and Markov Chain (CA_Markov) model-based predictions of future land use and land cover scenarios (2015–2033) in Raya, northern Ethiopia. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 3(4), 1245-1262.
Jombo, S., Adam, E., & Odindi, J. (2017). Quantification of landscape transformation due to the Fast Track Land Reform Programme (FTLRP) in Zimbabwe using remotely sensed data. Land Use Policy, 68, 287-294.
Kamete, A. Y. (2018). Pernicious assimilation: reframing the integration of the urban informal economy in Southern Africa. Urban Geography, 39(2), 167-189.
Karthiyayini, S., Vaardini, U. S., & Ragavi, S. (2016). Impact of urbanisation on groundwater—a review. International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, 11(3), 2016, 378-383.
Khan, M. M. H., Bryceson, I., Kolivras, K. N., Faruque, F., Rahman, M. M., & Haque, U. (2015). Natural disasters and land-use/land-cover change in the southwest coastal areas of Bangladesh. Regional environmental change, 15(2), 241-250.
Matamanda, A., & Chirisa, I. (2014). Ecological planning as an inner-city revitalisation agenda for Harare, Zimbabwe. City, Territory and Architecture, 1(1), 14.
Meyer, W. B., & Turner, B. L. (1992). Human population growth and global land-use/cover change. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 23(1), 39–61. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.23.110192.000351
Mugumbate, J., Maushe, F., & Nyoni, C. (2013). Ruralisation of urban areas: reversing development in Zimbabwe. International Journal of Advanced Research in Management and Social Sciences, 2(7), 13-30.
Naikoo, M. W., Rihan, M., & Ishtiaque, M., Shahfahad. (2020). Analyses of land use land cover (LULC) change and built-up expansion in the suburb of a metropolitan city: Spatio-temporal analysis of Delhi NCR using landsat datasets. Journal of Urban Management, 9(3), 347-359.
Shan, V., Singh, S. K., & Haritash, A. K. (2021). Present status, conservation, and management of wetlands in India. In Advances in Energy and Environment: Select Proceedings of TRACE 2020 (pp. 235-256). Singapore: Springer Singapore.
Sithole, A., & Goredema, B. (2013). Building in wetlands to meet the housing demand and urban growth in Harare. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 3(8).
Turner, J. S. (2021). Water Clarity and Suspended Particle Dynamics in the Chesapeake Bay: Local Effects of Oyster Aquaculture, Regional Effects of Reduced Shoreline Erosion, and Long-Term Trends in Remotely Sensed Reflectance. The College of William and Mary.
Zhou, X., Chu, Z., & Ji, X. (2024). Changes in the land-use landscape pattern and ecological network of Xuzhou planning area. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 8854.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Francisca Kunedzimwe, Precious Chirandure
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
